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Now that David Stern has officially closed the book on the "High School" era of the NBA, perhaps it's time to take a look back. While the league brass has officially decided that 18 and 19-year olds are not ready to make the jump, it certainly warrants the attention of this column to explore whether that is true. Beyond that, how has the general trend valuing youth and athletic ability ('potential,' if you'll excuse my language) over work ethic and other intangibles affected the NBA as a whole?
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| With the new NBA age limit, teams can no longer draft players like Kobe Bryant out of high school.
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This is a complicated question. How much of this trend can we attribute to the career of Michael Jordan, perhaps the most athletically talented player in basketball history, and certainly the best? Is the NBA's recent love affair with the Vince Carters and Jason Richardsons of the world simply a result of people seeing what that kind of athletic talent can do?
Though they are both excelling now, paired with great point guards, the popularity of Richardson, Carter and other "Next Jordans" has faded considerably as they have failed to propel their teams to championship heights. For anyone who really watched Michael Jordan, that label (given to more players than I'd care to list) was nothing more than a comment on physical talent - primarily dunking ability.
But I digress. The Next Michael Jordan Era, as I'll call it for now, was the early-to-mid '90s, and merely a prequel to our subject. What we're looking at is the High School Era, which really picked up steam right around the turn of the century.
Around the time of Michael Jordan's second retirement (1998), we began to see teams fishing for the next great athlete. Before the draft, all the NBA fan read was "huge upside," or "doesn't yet have a jump shot but at 17 is an incredible athlete," or my personal favorite: "he never played organized basketball before his junior year of high school!" It's truly incredible how many picks were spent on players that were nowhere near ready for the NBA.
At first, it was just bad judgment for a few teams picking on "potential (Michael Olowokandi at #1, anybody?). In 2001, the draft went high school crazy. Four of the top ten picks were high-schoolers (Kwame Brown 1, Tyson Chandler 2, Eddy Curry 4, DeSagana Diop 8). Not one of those players, now midway through their fifth year, has justified being a top-ten pick. Other unreasonable lottery picks from that draft include two college freshmen (Eddie Griffin at 7 and Rodney White at 9) and a junior college player (Kedrick Brown at 11).
The 2001 draft didn't have a boatload of talent, but I'm fairly certain that the GMs who picked those guys would love another crack at it. All seven were supposed to be athletic freaks with huge upsides, yet where are they now?
Kwame has shown virtually nothing, Chandler has been maddeningly inconsistent and completely inept on offense, Curry has questions about his heart (physically and emotionally) and also lacks consistency, Griffin and Diop have both bounced around and found homes as reserves (with Minnesota and Dallas, respectively), White and Kedrick Brown are both out of the league.
Amare Stoudamire was the only high school draft pick the following year, though two others declared themselves eligible. Then the explosion: five in 2003 (including LeBron James); eight in 2004, all in the first round, plus Jackie Butler who declared, went undrafted, and now plays for the hapless Knicks; another eight in 2005, none of whom are seeing a whole lot of PT; now, never again.
Since 1995 - when Kevin Garnett was the lone high school player drafted and the first in this era - nearly forty prep stars have been drafted by 24 NBA teams; Portland alone has drafted five. And this is the NBA, where the draft is two rounds, not two days. In the first few years scouts handled it well - Garnett certainly was worth the pick, as were Kobe and Jermaine O'Neal (though he took longer to develop) in 1996, Tracy McGrady in '97, Al Harrington and Rashard Lewis (picks 25 and 32, respectively) in '98.
From '99-'05, the list is far less distinguished, besides LeBron, Stoudamire and Dwight Howard. Don't get me wrong, there are players with potential who will one day be good, but none that wouldn't have been better served with a couple years of college ball. People also tend to forget that many of the overhyped Euro-ballers (Darko? Darkooooo? Are you there?) entered the league at high-school-grad age.
I can count on one hand - Garnett, LeBron, Stoudamire, Howard and maybe Kobe - the young'uns drafted from '95-'05 who were NBA ready. Many were slow enough to develop that one might say they just as well could have spent the time in school. Curry and Chandler were miserable their first couple years, I watched it. McGrady's first couple seasons were unexceptional. O'Neal did nothing in his four years in Portland; that's an entire college career.
The High School Era also truly hurt those who tried but failed to make it. A handful of preps declared and went undrafted, others were drafted but quickly fell out of the league and off the radar; it's not exactly a large segment of society, but it's disappointing to think that if the pros hadn't been an option those kids might have gotten a free college education. Say what you will about the actual educational merit of a D-I basketball scholarship, at least it opens the door.
At the end of the day, I'm afraid that the institution of an age limit will not be a panacea for the NBA draft. The entire draft strategy of most organizations has changed, and it's partially reflective of changes in the NBA game. Teams will still be searching for "freakish" athletes, and that will still lead some of them to pick players lacking intangibles and experience.
I do think the effect of the new rule will be positive. If nothing else, it saves teams from having to figure out how to judge a high schooler in NBA terms. The change is also tied to a new agreement that allows teams to send players "down," to the NBDL, while retaining the rights to sign them.
Basically, Comissioner Stern is making a push to clear NBA rosters of players who aren't ready to play in NBA games. I, for one, think it's a good idea. And I believe it will work: the High School Era is over.
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